Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young.
Identifieur interne : 000C39 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000C38; suivant : 000C40Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young.
Auteurs : Hervé Seligmann [France, Israël] ; Siham Iggui [France] ; Mustapha Rachdi [France] ; Nicolas Vuillerme [France] ; Jacques Demongeot [France]Source :
- Biology [ 2079-7737 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
(1) Background: Here, we characterize COVID-19's waves, following a study presenting negative associations between first wave COVID-19 spread parameters and temperature. (2) Methods: Visual examinations of daily increases in confirmed COVID-19 cases in 124 countries, determined first and second waves in 28 countries. (3) Results: The first wave spread rate increases with country mean elevation, median population age, time since wave onset, and decreases with temperature. Spread rates decrease above 1000 m, indicating high ultraviolet lights (UVs) decrease the spread rate. The second wave associations are the opposite, i.e., spread increases with temperature and young age, and decreases with time since wave onset. The earliest second waves started 5-7 April at mutagenic high elevations (Armenia, Algeria). The second waves also occurred at the warm-to-cold season transition (Argentina, Chile). Second vs. first wave spread decreases in most (77%) countries. In countries with late first wave onset, spread rates better fit second than first wave-temperature patterns. In countries with ageing populations (for example, Japan, Sweden, and Ukraine), second waves only adapted to spread at higher temperatures, not to infect the young. (4) Conclusions: First wave viruses evolved towards lower spread. Second wave mutant COVID-19 strain(s) adapted to higher temperature, infecting younger ages and replacing (also in cold conditions) first wave COVID-19 strains. Counterintuitively, low spread strains replace high spread strains, rendering prognostics and extrapolations uncertain.
DOI: 10.3390/biology9080226
PubMed: 32823981
PubMed Central: PMC7464149
Affiliations:
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Tronche, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region><settlement type="city">La Tronche</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91404, Israel.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country><wicri:regionArea>The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91404</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Jerusalem 91404</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Iggui, Siham" sort="Iggui, Siham" uniqKey="Iggui S" first="Siham" last="Iggui">Siham Iggui</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region><settlement type="city">La Tronche</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rachdi, Mustapha" sort="Rachdi, Mustapha" uniqKey="Rachdi M" first="Mustapha" last="Rachdi">Mustapha Rachdi</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region><settlement type="city">La Tronche</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vuillerme, Nicolas" sort="Vuillerme, Nicolas" uniqKey="Vuillerme N" first="Nicolas" last="Vuillerme">Nicolas Vuillerme</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region><settlement type="city">La Tronche</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Demongeot, Jacques" sort="Demongeot, Jacques" uniqKey="Demongeot J" first="Jacques" last="Demongeot">Jacques Demongeot</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region><settlement type="city">La Tronche</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Biology</title><idno type="ISSN">2079-7737</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">(1) Background: Here, we characterize COVID-19's waves, following a study presenting negative associations between first wave COVID-19 spread parameters and temperature. (2) Methods: Visual examinations of daily increases in confirmed COVID-19 cases in 124 countries, determined first and second waves in 28 countries. (3) Results: The first wave spread rate increases with country mean elevation, median population age, time since wave onset, and decreases with temperature. Spread rates decrease above 1000 m, indicating high ultraviolet lights (UVs) decrease the spread rate. The second wave associations are the opposite, i.e., spread increases with temperature and young age, and decreases with time since wave onset. The earliest second waves started 5-7 April at mutagenic high elevations (Armenia, Algeria). The second waves also occurred at the warm-to-cold season transition (Argentina, Chile). Second vs. first wave spread decreases in most (77%) countries. In countries with late first wave onset, spread rates better fit second than first wave-temperature patterns. In countries with ageing populations (for example, Japan, Sweden, and Ukraine), second waves only adapted to spread at higher temperatures, not to infect the young. (4) Conclusions: First wave viruses evolved towards lower spread. Second wave mutant COVID-19 strain(s) adapted to higher temperature, infecting younger ages and replacing (also in cold conditions) first wave COVID-19 strains. Counterintuitively, low spread strains replace high spread strains, rendering prognostics and extrapolations uncertain.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32823981</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>05</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2079-7737</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>9</Volume><Issue>8</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Aug</Month><Day>14</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Biology (Basel)</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">E226</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3390/biology9080226</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>(1) Background: Here, we characterize COVID-19's waves, following a study presenting negative associations between first wave COVID-19 spread parameters and temperature. (2) Methods: Visual examinations of daily increases in confirmed COVID-19 cases in 124 countries, determined first and second waves in 28 countries. (3) Results: The first wave spread rate increases with country mean elevation, median population age, time since wave onset, and decreases with temperature. Spread rates decrease above 1000 m, indicating high ultraviolet lights (UVs) decrease the spread rate. The second wave associations are the opposite, i.e., spread increases with temperature and young age, and decreases with time since wave onset. The earliest second waves started 5-7 April at mutagenic high elevations (Armenia, Algeria). The second waves also occurred at the warm-to-cold season transition (Argentina, Chile). Second vs. first wave spread decreases in most (77%) countries. In countries with late first wave onset, spread rates better fit second than first wave-temperature patterns. In countries with ageing populations (for example, Japan, Sweden, and Ukraine), second waves only adapted to spread at higher temperatures, not to infect the young. (4) Conclusions: First wave viruses evolved towards lower spread. Second wave mutant COVID-19 strain(s) adapted to higher temperature, infecting younger ages and replacing (also in cold conditions) first wave COVID-19 strains. Counterintuitively, low spread strains replace high spread strains, rendering prognostics and extrapolations uncertain.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Seligmann</LastName><ForeName>Hervé</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91404, Israel.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Iggui</LastName><ForeName>Siham</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rachdi</LastName><ForeName>Mustapha</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vuillerme</LastName><ForeName>Nicolas</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-3773-393X</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Demongeot</LastName><ForeName>Jacques</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>14</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Switzerland</Country><MedlineTA>Biology (Basel)</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101587988</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2079-7737</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">adaptation for low pathogenicity</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">exponential slope</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">random drift</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">regression</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>14</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>12</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>13</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>23</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>23</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>23</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32823981</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">biology9080226</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.3390/biology9080226</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7464149</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Int J 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Sep;138:110137</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32834583</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Israël</li></country><region><li>Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</li><li>Rhône-Alpes</li></region><settlement><li>La Tronche</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="France"><region name="Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes"><name sortKey="Seligmann, Herve" sort="Seligmann, Herve" uniqKey="Seligmann H" first="Hervé" last="Seligmann">Hervé Seligmann</name></region><name sortKey="Demongeot, Jacques" sort="Demongeot, Jacques" uniqKey="Demongeot J" first="Jacques" last="Demongeot">Jacques Demongeot</name><name sortKey="Iggui, Siham" sort="Iggui, Siham" uniqKey="Iggui S" first="Siham" last="Iggui">Siham Iggui</name><name sortKey="Rachdi, Mustapha" sort="Rachdi, Mustapha" uniqKey="Rachdi M" first="Mustapha" last="Rachdi">Mustapha Rachdi</name><name sortKey="Vuillerme, Nicolas" sort="Vuillerme, Nicolas" uniqKey="Vuillerme N" first="Nicolas" last="Vuillerme">Nicolas Vuillerme</name></country><country name="Israël"><noRegion><name sortKey="Seligmann, Herve" sort="Seligmann, Herve" uniqKey="Seligmann H" first="Hervé" last="Seligmann">Hervé Seligmann</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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